By George Smart, Financial Planner, Walker Crips Financial Planning

On 28 October 2026, the Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Budget, and the first under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. If you have been following the headlines, you'll have probably already seen plenty about what could be announced at the Budget, including around capital gains tax, pensions, inheritance tax reliefs and a possible “mansion tax” expansion. Some of it will turn out to matter. Much of it won't.

In this article, I wanted to set out what's actually been confirmed, what's genuinely still just speculation, and more importantly, why the right response to rumours in the run up to the Budget isn't to guess, but to make sure your financial plan is built to cope with whatever is announced.

What we already know

Relatively little has been formally announced for the upcoming Budget, and this is not unusual. Budget plans are generally kept confidential until the Chancellor’s statement, so there is often very little that can be said with certainty beforehand.

In the weeks before the Budget, it's common to see a mix of rumours, media speculation or even deliberate leaks designed to test the public reaction to potential changes.

Since becoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has announced a number of policies aimed at tackling the cost of living. These have included a 20% cut to business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues, a £2 cap on bus fares and a VAT cut on household electricity bills. The Government has also been explicit that it intends to stick to its manifesto commitment not to raise the headline rates of Income Tax, National Insurance or VAT for “working people.”

The more important question, however, is not necessarily what happens on 28 October in isolation. It’s what the direction of travel over the last two years could mean for your own financial plan.

Where we've come from: the last two Budgets

October 2024 — the first Budget of this Parliament

• Capital Gains Tax rates rose from 10%/18% and 20%/24% bands to a flat 18% (basic rate) and 24% (higher rate) for most assets.
• Business Asset Disposal Relief — the reduced rate available on the first £1 million of qualifying gains when selling a business began a phased increase, moving it from its historic 10% rate to 18% on all gains on qualifying assets sold from 6 April 2026.
• From 6 April 2027, pensions will be brought within the scope of Inheritance Tax, removing one of the advantages that pensions historically offered as a way of passing wealth to the next generation.
• Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief were both capped at £2.5 million of full relief per person from April 2026, with 50% relief above that — a significant change for family business owners and farming families.
• Employer National Insurance contributions increased, with knock-on effects for business owners when considering employment costs.

November 2025 — the second Budget

• Personal tax thresholds were frozen for a further three years to April 2031, continuing the “fiscal drag” that pulls more income into higher tax bands each year.
• From April 2026, dividend tax rates rose by two percentage points for basic and higher rate taxpayers. From April 2027, property and savings income tax rates will rise by two percentage points in each tax band.
• From April 2029, only the first £2,000 a year of pension contributions made via salary sacrifice will remain free of employer and employee National Insurance — something that could be particularly relevant if you are a higher earner making substantial pension contributions through salary sacrifice.
• A new “high-value council tax surcharge” (widely dubbed as the “mansion tax”) was announced for residential property worth £2 million or more from April 2028, starting at £2,500 a year and rising to £7,500 above £5 million.
• From April 2027, the amount that can be saved into a Cash ISA each year will be capped at £12,000 for most savers (those over 65 keep the full £20,000 cash allowance), with the remaining £8,000 balance only shielded from tax if invested in a stocks and shares ISA.

What's being talked about for this Budget?

It is important to note that none of the following has been confirmed, and some of these proposals may never become policy. However, here are some of the potential changes being discussed as we approach the Budget date:

• Capital Gains Tax: continued speculation that rates could move closer to Income Tax rates, and that Business Asset Disposal Relief could be reduced further.
• Inheritance Tax: the Prime Minister has been reported as willing to “look again” at the 2024 changes to Agricultural and Business Property Relief, although no firm proposal has been put forward.
• The CGT “uplift at death” which currently resets the taxable base cost of inherited assets has been floated as a possible target, which would be a meaningful change if you hold significant investments or assets with substantial unrealised gains.
• The high-value council tax surcharge introduced last Budget could be expanded, potentially affecting more properties than originally scoped.
• A broader wealth tax has been discussed publicly but currently appears unlikely.

The important point is that a headline about a possible tax change doesn’t automatically mean you need to do something about it today.

Before making a financial decision about something you’ve read in the news, it is worth asking:

• Is the change actually confirmed?
• Would this change affect me?
• Would the proposed action still make sense if the rumoured change doesn’t happen?

The case for a financial plan that adapts — not a plan for one Budget

Every Budget now comes with weeks of rumours and speculation. If you react to every headline, you could end up making poor financial decisions based on something that may never become law.

That doesn't mean doing nothing at all, however. The sensible response to uncertainty is to understand where your financial plan could be exposed, what options you have available and how quickly you could act if a change is confirmed. The right response will be different for each individual.

A financial plan isn't something you create once and never revisit. Legislation changes. Markets move. Your income, your business, your family and your objectives change too. A plan that isn't reviewed regularly can quietly drift out of date, and sometimes without you noticing until it matters.

Holistic, ongoing financial planning means:

Building a plan around your actual objectives — retirement, business succession, family wealth, security (rather than around today's tax rules alone).

Reviewing that plan regularly, so it keeps pace with changes to legislation, markets, your circumstances and your goals.

Stress-testing your position so you know in advance where you're exposed and what your options would be under a range of outcomes.

This article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The scenarios and examples used are illustrative only and are not based on any individual’s circumstances. Tax rules depend on individual circumstances and may change. You should always seek regulated financial advice tailored to your own situation before making any decisions.